The United States said it did not panic when drones knocked down nearly half of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity
the United States said it did not panic when drones knocked down nearly half of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production capacity
time: September 16, 2019 09:13:54 Zhongcai Guide: drones lined up to attack, and the oil field was once ablaze, while Saudi Arabia's stock market has fallen this year's rise on the same day
author | first finance Qian Xiaoyan
when the world's largest crude oil exporter can halve, what will happen to the oil price
at about 4 a.m. local time on September 14, Saudi Arabia, the day was not yet bright, and the residents were still asleep. Suddenly, several drones launched attacks on an oil field and an oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia
the attacked facility immediately ignited a sky high fire, illuminating half the sky in the dark. By dawn, the flame did not subside at all, but became more fierce, emitting billowing smoke
in the background of the video taken near the refinery, obvious gunfire can also be heard, which seems to be the sound of the Saudi military using anti-aircraft guns to fire on UAVs in the air. According to some media reports in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia sent an air early warning aircraft to the border area after that
the attacked khurais oilfield is less than 200 kilometers away from the Saudi capital. It is the second largest oilfield in Saudi Arabia, with an average daily crude oil production of 1million barrels. According to Saudi Aramco (hereinafter referred to as "Saudi Aramco"), the crude oil reserves of this oil field exceed 20billion barrels
the other place attacked is the Abqaiq refinery, which is located 190 kilometers northeast of the hulais oilfield and is also operated by Saudi Aramco. The company claims that Bouguer refinery is "the world's largest crude oil refinery"
this is the largest attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities in more than a decade, with a loss of more than half of the country's production capacity, highlighting the vulnerability of Saudi oil fields, pipelines and port networks, and posing a considerable impact on oil prices in the short term
according to industry research institutions, Saudi Arabia exports 1.3 million barrels of crude oil per day to China by making non-woven fabrics from such fibers. The reduction of production may cause great pressure on China's crude oil market
Hu Xue, an analyst at Zhongyu information, told first finance and economics that the fishing moratorium in September has ended one after another. With the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, gasoline and diesel demand is supported; In addition, as the National Day approaches, there may be relevant policies to restrict transportation and production, which will support the refined oil market. As the traditional peak sales season, the oil consumption of "Jinjiu" in industry and mining, infrastructure construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and sidelines will continue to expand. The arrival of the peak demand may continue to push up the price of domestic oil products, and the oil products that are already at a high price will usher in a new round of push up. In September, Bayer materials technology developed a new aqueous polyurethane adhesive solution to adapt to the Chinese market, and the retail end of refined oil is also expected to usher in two upward adjustment windows
but in an interview with China business, zouzhiqiang, an associate researcher at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai Foreign Studies University, said that judging from the current supply-demand relationship, the impact of geopolitical factors on the international energy market will be short-lived
international oil prices may rise by $5 to $10
after the attack, Saudi Arabia announced the temporary closure of the Bouguer refinery, which means that since the 14th, Saudi Arabia has lost more than half of its crude oil production capacity at once
▲ Saudi Aramco is preparing to go public. (source: Saudi Aramco officials)
according to Saudi Aramco's statement, the shutdown will affect 5.7 million barrels of crude oil production per day, which is equivalent to 5% of the world's daily crude oil production. According to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Saudi Arabia produced an average of 9.85 million barrels of crude oil per day in August
Abdul Aziz bin Salman, Saudi energy minister, said that the attack also led to the interruption of natural gas production, which would reduce the supply of ethane and liquefied natural gas in Saudi Arabia by 50%. He also said that he would use part of the reserves to deliver goods to customers as a remedy
Amin Nasser, President and CEO of Saudi Aramco, said that no one was injured in the attack, and emergency rescue workers participated in the rescue work of the fire and brought the fire under control
at present, Saudi Aramco is preparing to go public. The first step is to list on the Saudi stock market before the end of this year. This has led some analysts to speculate that the attack may also deliberately lower the market value of the company at the time of listing
the Saudi Arabian stock market fell by 2.3% after opening on the 15th. Although it has rebounded since then, it has also lost all the gains this year
due to the weekend closure of the international market, the impact of this round of attacks on oil prices has not been immediately apparent, but most experts believe that this can at least drive oil prices up by more than $5-10
"something serious has happened!" Andrew lipow, President of lipow oil associates, said, "in the worst case, it will push up the price of crude oil by $5 to $10."
the impact of Saudi Arabia's production reduction on oil importing countries is also different. He said that Saudi Arabia exported only 600000 barrels of crude oil to the United States every day, while 4million barrels of crude oil were exported to Asia. Among them, China is the largest buyer among Asian countries, with 1.3 million barrels per day; 1.2 million barrels in Japan
Kevin book, research director of Clearview energy, a consulting company, said that the impact on prices depends on the time of repair, which takes weeks or even months
he said, "after referring to the capacity of Saudi Arabia's strategic oil reserves and the comprehensive assessment of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reserve capacity, (this attack) means that there is a net gap of 1million barrels of crude oil per day, which means that Brent crude oil rises by at least $6/barrel". He also added, "assuming a three week shutdown, according to our model, it means there is room for an increase of $10/barrel"
after the attack, the United States said that it would use emergency oil reserves to ensure market supply when necessary. At present, the United States is one of the world's top crude oil exporters
shaylyn Hynes, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of energy, said that energy secretary Perry was "ready to use the resources of the strategic oil reserve when necessary to offset any damage to the oil market caused by this attack"
after the oil crisis caused by the Middle East oil embargo in the 1970s, the US Congress approved the establishment of strategic oil reserves (SPR). The strategic oil reserve is to store crude oil in a series of salt caverns on the coast of Texas and Louisiana, which are guarded by heavy troops. At present, the strategic oil reserve of the United States has reached 649.1 million barrels, which is equivalent to the national consumption of the United States in a month
▲ the trend of U.S. strategic oil reserves and non strategic reserves in recent 70 years
▲ crude oil reserves in the United States over the years (source: EIA)
a spokesman for the U.S. Department of energy said Perry also instructed his department to cooperate with the International Energy Agency under the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD). The International Energy Agency previously said on social media that it was in contact with Saudi Arabia and major oil producing countries, and that there was sufficient supply in the current market
in an interview with China business, zouzhiqiang believed that the international oil price will inevitably be impacted in the short term, but as mentioned above, all parties have expressed their determination to stabilize the oil market, and the demand side has been relatively weak, so it is difficult for the international oil price to continue to rise in the long run. In the context of constant supply and demand fundamentals, the impact of geopolitical factors on the international energy market will be short-lived
is the reason from the civil war in Yemen
after the attack, yehaiya sari, a spokesman of the Yemeni Hussein armed forces, made a brief speech on the 14th by the Masila television station operated by this organization, confirming that the Hussein armed forces used 10 drones to attack the bugaig refinery in Saudi Arabia and an oil field in the hulais region
Hussein armed forces have recently launched several attacks against Saudi oil facilities. The armed forces attacked the shabai oil field in Saudi Arabia near the border of the United Arab Emirates on August 17, and attacked two pump stations in May. However, these attacks were relatively small in scale, only triggered the fire, and did not affect the production of crude oil as this time
Suri claimed that the attack was "the largest to date" and "requires extensive intelligence preparation", including information from within Saudi Arabia. Previously, Hussein armed forces also attacked targets in Saudi Arabia with missiles
Sari also threatened that if Saudi Arabia continued to intervene in the war in Yemen, the armed attack on Saudi Arabia would be more violent. "The only option for the Saudi government is to stop attacking us."
in September 2014, Hussein armed forces seized Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, forcing then president Hadi to take refuge in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries launched a military operation code named "decisive storm" against the Hussein armed forces in March 2015, and the war has continued to this day. Many Middle East experts believe that the civil war in Yemen is essentially a "proxy" war between Saudi Arabia and Iran
▲ on September 5, in the Saudi capital, David Schenker (right), the assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs of the United States, visited a military facility. Xinhua News Agency
US President trump spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the 14th, condemning the attack on Saudi oil facilities and expressing support for Saudi self-defense
and US Secretary of state Pompeo accused Iran of being the mastermind behind the attack for no reason. Pompeo said through Twitter, "(Iranian president) Rouhani and (foreign minister) Zarif pretended to be diplomatic, while Iran orchestrated nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia. At a time when all parties called for a reduction in tension, Iran launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply. At present, there is no evidence that these attacks came from Yemen."1. Understand the four elements of procurement: P>
PENG PEO also called on all countries to publicly and unequivocally condemn the Iranian attack. However, Pompeo's statement was immediately questioned by Democrats
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that this is a kind of irresponsible simplification, and this is also the reason why we fall into a stupid war. He further said, "Saudi Arabia and the Hussein armed forces are in a state of war. Saudi Arabia attacks the Hussein armed forces, and the Hussein armed forces fight back. Iran supports the Hussein armed forces, but this is not as simple as' Hussein = Iran '."
for the accusation of the United States, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mousavi said on the 15th that such accusations are meaningless and incomprehensible
as for the possibility that Iran participated in the attack, zouzhiqiang said in an interview with China business that at present, there is no clear evidence that Iran's involvement in the sensor represents the stability of the equipment. On the whole, the confrontation between the United States and Iran is escalating, and the rise in oil prices caused by this attack is also beneficial to Iran, but Iran will not participate in the direct attack on Saudi Arabia
(first finance and economics Dong Xin also contributed to this article) (first, finance and Economics)